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Quality during Design
Quality during Design is a production of Deeney Enterprises, LLC. It is a podcast for product designers, engineers, and anyone else who cares about creating high-quality products. In each episode, we explore the principles of quality design, from user-centered thinking to iterative development. We introduce frameworks to make better design decisions and reduce costly re-designs. We explore ways to co-work with cross-functional teams. We also talk to experts in the field about their experiences and insights.
Join host Dianna Deeney in using quality thinking throughout the design process to create products others love, for less. Whether you're a seasoned designer or just starting out, looking to improve your existing designs or start from scratch, Quality during Design is the podcast for you.
Quality during Design
Practice Makes Improvement in Subjective Probability Estimations
Does the phrase "Subjective Probability Estimation" make you feel uncomfortable? If you're a data-driven professional, you're likely wary of each of those terms on their own, let alone combining them into one thing.
But we sometimes need to do it. And we can practice to get better at it.
In this episode, we emphasize the importance of subjective probability estimations in decision-making, especially in situations where concrete data may be unavailable or impractical.
We talk about:
• Exploring the discomfort of subjective probability estimations
• Utilizing Monte Carlo simulations for complex systems analysis
• Addressing bias and improving estimation accuracy
Inspired by Douglas W. Hubbard's "The Failure of Risk Management," we uncover strategies to sharpen our estimation skills. Consistent practice leads to improvements. Whether it's by imagining you're betting money, breaking down complex estimations, or engaging in true-false trivia, this episode emphasizes regular practice in refining these skills.
I invite you to participate in a collaborative endeavor tailored for engineers—creating a shared database of estimation questions—to foster a community of learning and improvement.
- Choose a true/false question (with answer).
- Or ask for a value (e.g. distance in air travel from LAX to PHL) (with answer).
Share it with Dianna to add to a database for sharing. Either leave a message through the link at the top of these show notes or respond in email to Dianna's newsletter.
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About me
Dianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations optimize their engineering processes and team performance by promoting the use of reliability and quality methods during design. She offers consulting services for managers and directors, training for engineers through the Quality During Design program, and other practical resources.
